Yesterday the Baseball Hall of Fame elected four new members – Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio. It is the first time that four players have been elected by the BBWAA in the same year since 1955. The controversy that surrounds the vote every year can be intriguing, but when is enough going to be enough for MLB to finally get it right?
Let’s look at the four who got elected yesterday. Pedro and The Unit are no brainers in my opinion. Two of the most dominant pitchers I have seen in my lifetime and of all-time. Very easy picks. But here’s where the process gets ridiculous. How can voters NOT vote for Unit or Pedro on the first ballot? I have never understood the logic in purposely leaving someone off the ballot just because it’s their first year of eligibility. Either they’re a HOF or they’re not. Are the writers that jealous because they couldn’t play? Is it a power trip for them to hold someone’s legacy in their hands? The process has to change.
Anyway, it gets interesting for the other two inductees. For me, John Smoltz gets in because his postseason performances bolster his stellar regular season numbers. One stat you need to know about Smoltz – his postseason starting record was 21-4 and in those four losses his teams scored him a grand total of four runs. Plus, any player who can be a dominant starter and then transition to a dominant closer is pretty special.
Finally, we get to Craig Biggio. And this is where my opinion of the status of the Hall of Fame becomes clear. First let me say that I loved Biggio as a ball player. Even though he played in the same division as my beloved Cubs I loved watching him play because he played the game the right way. He and Jeff Bagwell (who deserves to be in the Hall, btw) were two of my favorite non-Cubs.
Now, here is my hardline stance about the HOF. There are two types of players eligible to be enshrined in the HOF - ones you’ve seen their entire career and those you haven’t. For the latter, I have to completely rely upon statistics and comparisons. For the former, I have a simple test - were they they absolute best at their position in their league for an extended period of time? And that’s just the start. This, to me, is where Biggio falls short. The bigger problem is that Biggio hit the “magic” number - 3000. You get there you’re getting in. But that’s my gripe. Longevity is a great attribute to have as a player. yet it can skew our view of the player as well.
For any argument like this I love to browse to www.baseball-reference.com and hit up the JAWS and Similarity Scores sections. Jay Jaffe created the JAWS statistical comparison based on WAR. At the same time, the Similarity Scores rank the player in relation to other players in MLB history. Let’s look at Biggio. He is ranked as the 14th best overall 2B in MLB history. Not bad, but he is behind non-HOF’s such as Bobby Grich (7th), Lou Whitaker (11) and Chase Utley (12). As you may or may not know, Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich have never even sniffed entrance into the HOF. Does this diminish Biggio’s case? I think so. At the same time, his statistical comparisons help his case as he is compared to Robin Yount, Derek Jeter, Roberto Alomar and Joe Morgan. Some statistics that stand out to me in the case for Biggio are that he was an All-Star only 7 times, a Gold Glover four times, and Top 5 in MVP voting twice. His case makes it very difficult for me to decided definitively if he is a slam dunk HOF or not.
A better comparison may be a battle of 3B - Brooks Robinson and Ron Santo. Robinson was a first ballot HOF and Santo had to wait for the Veterans Committee once he had passed away. Let’s look at the stats.
Initially, Brooks page makes a strong case as he was a 15 time All-Star and a 16 time Gold Glover. He even won the AL MVP on 1964. No-brainer, right? Let’s dig deeper. He only batted over .300 TWICE and only lead the league in an offensive statistic ONCE - RBI in his MVP year of 1964. As I scroll down to the JAWS and Similarity Scores area is when the red light really goes off for me. He is ranked 8th overall in MLB history as a 3B, BEHIND Ron Santo. And as I look at the the players on that list, the closest rivals in the AL at the time he played don’t show up until 15 and 16 (Buddy Bell and Sal Bando). His “similar player comparison” is Buddy Bell. If that doesn’t speak volumes, I’m not sure what can because nobody believes Buddy Bell is a HOF.
Ron Santo, however, was a the victim of baseball writers for years. The first statistic that stands out is that he is ranked ahead of Brooks Robinson in the JAWS scores for 3B. Secondly, in his early career he had to play in the shadow of HOF Eddie Mathews who is ranked 2nd in history at 3B (only surpassed by Mike Schmidt). Santo was a 9 time All-Star and a five time Gold Glover. He also finished in the Top 5 of NL MVP voting twice. Santo also finished with almost 80 more HR’s and just less than 20 RBI’s than Robinson in EIGHT less years.
The problem? Robinson had the infamous 1971 World Series where he was the “human vacuum cleaner” at 3B and helped the Orioles win the World Series. Are those few games enough of a disillusion to negatively affect Ron Santo’s HOF induction for all those years? I believe so. The writers are enamored with great performances and I understand that concept. However, at what point does the body of work not make the definitive decision?
It is a very slippery slope the voting for the Baseball Hall of Fame. And it needs to be changed. Not just in the manner of who votes, but the conviction of the votes. I believe every voter should have to release their results with explanations of said votes. I’ve voiced a few of my convictions on HOF players and you may not agree. That’s OK, but that’s also what helps make baseball the greatest game in the world.
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