MLB All-Star Game Thoughts and Midseason Awards

The full rosters (with the exception of the vote in candidates) have been announced for the 86^th MLB All-Star Game in Cincinnati on July 14^th. I always enjoy the scuttlebutt that surrounds the All-Star Game because it reminds me of the horrible marketing strategies of Major League Baseball.

There was controversy even before the lineups were announced as Kansas City Royals fans were stepping up their game in order to get their guys voted into the starting lineup. I don’t begrudge their fans at all, but it belies the purpose of “fan voting”. The original intent was for fans to vote in the players most worthy of starting the ASG. In my single years (the 90’s), it became a popularity vote wherein aging stars were voted in based on past accomplishments. Now it’s just a total debacle.  In the end, only four Royals ended up as starters – and only one of those doesn’t really deserve the accolade.

At this point, it’s left to media pundits and amateur hacks like myself to analyze who belongs and who doesn’t.  But before I get to those comparisons, let’s talk about why this is even an issue to begin with…

Other professional leagues have taken note of the apathy with their All-Star Games and have made appropriate changes in order to better appease the fan base. What a novel concept! The only change made to the MLB ASG was based on an aberration that was taken WAY too seriously.

In 2002 the ASG was held in Milwaukee and the game headed into extra innings. After 11 innings both teams “ran out of pitchers”. The game was called a tie. To me? No big deal. In 70 plus years it’s the first time it happened. Move on to 2003 and keep the status quo. But no!! MLB, in its infinite wisdom, decided the best move to make was to give the winning league home field advantage in the World Series. Say what?!?! How on earth does a tie game lead to the winning team getting home field in the Series? It makes ZERO sense. But of course, that’s how MLB operates. For years, the big-wigs at MLB have decided it is better to be reactive than proactive. Everyone knows that the team with the better record during the year should have home field in the World Series.

Back to the horrible marketing strategies – the MLB could very simply expand the rosters to include more players. This would allow the managers more players to work with should the game goes to extra innings. At the same time, it alleviates the issue of having a representative from every team at the ASG. How is that a problem? Well, let’s take a look at some of the pitching in the National League....

But wait! There is a precursor to my argument. I am a firm believer in advanced metrics. The new wave of statistics better represents a player’s value than the old statistics. For example, what are Wins anyway? If a relief pitcher comes in to face the opponent in the top of the 9^th with a one run lead, but gives up two runs – that’s bad, right? However, if the home team then scores two runs in the bottom of the ninth that very reliever gets the win. Stupid, right?

ERA is the same way. It’s fielding dependent, which is completely out of the pitchers control. Therefore, I prefer stats like WAR, FIP and xFIP to measure true value of a pitcher. Should you want the definitions/explamations of any of these terms, I suggest browsing to Fangraphs. Their site is excellent for advance metrics measurement. Below is a chart of six National League pitchers. The information can be found here.

Player	Wins	Losses	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR	WAR Rank
Player A	5	6	3.08	2.55	2.12	3.1	6
Player B	8	5	2.80	2.72	2.72	2.8	13
Player C	5	4	2.07	3.08	3.70	2.2	20
Player D	8	5	3.34	3.22	3.13	2.1	23
Player E	10	3	2.66	3.17	3.51	2.0	28
Player F	9	3	2.70	3.57	3.17	1.3	53

As you can see, as I explained earlier, the Wins and Losses statistics are overrated. Player A is under .500 yet his FIP and WAR are outstanding. His true value is the highest of the group. Player’s E and F have great W/L records but their FIP and WAR rankings are lower than the rest. So who should go to the All-Star Game? Well, here is who those players really are:

Player A – Clayton Kershaw
Player B – Jake Arrieta
Player C – Shelby Miller
Player D – Madison Bumgarner
Player E – Michael Wacha
Player F – Carlos Martinez

Take note – the top two players in the rankings are not going to the All-Star Game. This is why the process is flawed. Bruce Bochy is taking his own guy – Bumgarner, over Arrieta and Kershaw. I kind of understand that seeing as he dominated the postseason last year. However, Kershaw and Arrieta should be going to Cincinnati. Expanding the rosters would alleviate this problem. At the same time, what if the MLB formed a committee to select the ASG reserves? They would ask the managers the number of players per position and pitchers needed for their roster. The committee would then choose the reserves for the game. Yes, it’s a stretch. But it’s better than the current system.

Let’s look at a position player perspective – the 3B debate in the NL. Todd Frazier is starting and he deserves it with the year he is having AND that the game is being played in Cincinnati.  Nolan Arenado is having an amazing year as well, so that leaves one spot for the last 3B slot.

Player	BA	HR	RBI	BABIP	OPS	wOBA	wRC	WAR	War Rank
Player A	.278	12	49	.378	.862	.376	139	3.5	10
Player B	.271	8	39	.322	.812	.354	128	2.0	58

For those who aren’t good at math – Player A is better in EVERY single regular and advanced statistic. So where’s the argument, right? It comes from fans.

Player A – Kris Bryant
Player B – Matt Carpenter

Once the backups were announced Cardinals fans went ballistic on social media bashing the choice of Bryant over Carpenter. It seems pretty petty at this point because of the statistics above.  Yet, that is not stopping Cardinals fans. It’s pretty hilarious to be honest. They should be defending the questionable pitching selections of Cardinals players than worrying about Matt Carpenter.

Anyway, there you have it. Major League Baseball, with a new Commissioner who is not a former owner, should look long and hard at the process to makes positive changes to the process. If it means eight KC Royals starting in the game to begin the ball rolling, then so be it…

Mid-Season Awards

MVP

NL – Bryce Harper, Nationals. This was pretty easy. His numbers are off the charts fantastic. 25 bombs and 60 RBI’s are just a start. Here’s the stat – his OPS is 1.180. That’s insane. Oh yeah, did I mention he’s younger than Kris Bryant? (22)

2^nd Place – Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
3^rd Place – Todd Frazier, Reds

AL – Mike Trout, Angels. This one was difficult. It was so close between Trout and Josh Donaldson. It came down to OPS and Trout’s was better. They are both fantastic defensive players as well. This will be a fun race to watch down the stretch.

2^nd Place – Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays
3^rd Place – Jason Kipnis, Indians

Cy Young Award

NL – Max Scherzer, Nationals. Again, a no brainer. He’s been lights out this year. His WAR is a full point higher than the next NL pitcher. No-hitter (near perfect game), strikeouts galore, there’s nothing this guy can’t do.

2^nd Place – Zach Greinke, Dodgers
3^rd Place – Jake Arrieta, Cubs

AL – Chris Sale, White Sox. His strikeout numbers this year are otherworldly, as he tied a record with double-digit K’s in eight straight games. That’s Pedro Martine and Randy Johnson territory. That tells you the year he’s having.

2^nd Place – Dallas Kuechel, Astros
3^rd Place – Chris Archer, Rays

Rookie of the Year

NL – Kris Bryant, Cubs. You may say this is a homer pick, but look closely at the statistics. Bryant has more RBI’s than Joc, a higher BABIP, a much higher batting average and a higher WAR.

2^nd Place – Joc Pederson, Dodgers
3^rd Place – Matt Duffy, Giants

AL – Carlos Correa, Astros. Apologies to Devin Travis and teammate, Lance McCullers, but this kid is going to be a STUD for a long time. He hasn’t even been in the big leagues all that long and is probably the best SS in the American League right now.

2^nd Place – Lance McCullers, Astros
3^rd Place – Devin Travis, Blue Jays

It is interesting to look at the midseason awards and compare them with the preseason picks. Every year I make these picks to show my classes at school (and to have them on record). So far, not too bad I must say.... (just disregard some of my division and wild card picks). 

Until next time...

Shawn