MLB Playoffs Preview

Thad and I decided to share our thoughts on the MLB Playoffs as we are both HUGE baseball fans. We went for the email chat route, ala Bill Simmons.  Here is the transcript:

Shawn:

Let’s get this rolling!!

First, it’s exciting to finally get baseball some love on the Triplets website. Second, while playoff time is always very intense, it is somewhat sad that the regular season is over. This season had so many twists and turns, Scherzer with TWO no-hitters, three teams in one division with the best three records in baseball, a crazy trade deadline, Bryce Harper and Jake Arrieta putting up historic number and managers already getting fired. Just another reason to love baseball.

But let’s get to the play-in games tonight and tomorrow. How about those Astros? Who would’ve thought their plan would work so quickly Tons of young talent and Kuechel on the mound. He’s pitching on three days’ rest tonight, which could be interesting. He has owned the Yankees this year but you’ve got to think Yankee Stadium magic may play a part in tonight’s game.

As far as Wednesday’s game goes – there might not be a better pitching matchup all postseason than Cole vs Arrieta. How crazy is it that the teams with the second and third best records in all of MLB get one game to keep playing in the playoffs?

Thad:

It was a great regular season!  Baseball has made a complete transition as well to being pitching dominate over all of the offense we saw before.  It is a time where Aces are wild and the idea of defense and taking an extra base are back in style.  Crazy to think that Scherzer throws two no-hitters, his teammate will win MVP, and their manager was fired 1 day after the season.  Talk about underachieving.  Arrieta had 20 consecutive starts that no one in the history of baseball has ever had.  

I don't want to go into my thoughts on the play-in games right now.  I think that is a topic for another time.  The Astros were the biggest surprise in baseball.  Sure they struggled a little down the stretch, but who thought they would be in the mix any way.  They lost 92 games last year!  Altuve has been a hit machine, but they found some power now with Carter, Rasmus, and my guy Luis Valbuena.  Kuechel is an ace.  Yes, he struggled a little away from home, but with his stuff, his naivety, and his beard I think he gets it done on short rest.  I don't think you have to worry about his arm or endurance being an issue as the playoff energy will carry him for a while.

This is really where the playoff set up gets me.  I know they haven't had this before since this expansion, but what gets me more than the play-in game matching up the second and third best records is that the winner advances to play the first best record!  They should be advancing and taking on LA or the Mets.  This pitching matchup is pure stud!  We talked about Arrieta and Cole is in that same mix with Kuechel as a young ace just coming into his own.  This seems like the game where one big hit or one big error makes the difference.  For Cubs fans I almost think a one-and-done scenario is better for them as the excitement/agony should come quickly and painless. 

Shawn:

I agree. We could get into specifics about how the playoff formats do or don’t work, but that’s a topic for another day (or a column I have coming). 

Houston went into New York last night and shut the Yankees down. Kuechel was masterful on three days’ rest and the Astros got the three big hits they needed. Now they go face the Royals in the Division Series. The Blue Jays intrigue me as the playoffs begin. They’ve got so much pop in that lineup, but at the same time, those are the lineups that tend to slump in the playoffs. I still believe the Royals will come out of the AL this year again.

It is odd that after the Division Series only one of the three best teams in baseball will still be alive. I won’t complain if it’s the Cubs, that’s for sure. :) I’m already nervous for the game tonight. Part of me feels like the baseball gods won’t allow two upstart, feel-good Wild Cards teams to win on the road in the same year. Dang Astros!!

I’m curious to your thoughts as to the Twitter response Jake Arrieta sent to a Pirates fan who send him an interesting tweet. 

Whatever helps keep your hope alive, just know, it doesn't matter. @Cubs https://t.co/bJDN1wP0tS

— Jake Arrieta (@JArrieta34) October 4, 2015

Part of me absolutely LOVES his response. But I’m also a non-trash-talk kind of guy. The jinx factor is high here.

Finally, the Matt Harvey Debacle continues as he was late to a mandatory workout yesterday. Is this ever going to end? Does he think he’s bigger than the team? I do find it interesting that the Mets are saving him to pitch in New York. I’m not sure I’d want the rookie Syndergaard pitching A) on the road and B) against Greinke. Thoughts?

Thad:

Good topic to go with! Would like to discuss that.

Keuchel was a stud last night. I know that was his first playoff appearance and first BIG game he has pitched in, but that's what you want out of your ace. How weird was it to see the Yankees at home with a lackluster crowd and never make any noise on offense? Weren't you waiting for Jeter, Posada, Tino, Bernie, or Brosius to come up and start a rally with a huge hit? I think the Royals-Astros will be fun. Two teams people are still learning about that are loaded with young players. I thought when the Jays made the moves to get Tulo and Price they became the best team in the AL. Donaldson is a beast and should be MVP. Encarnacion and Bautista can flat out rake and they are in scoring position when they step into the box. I picked the Royals before the season to be in the World Series, and like their chances but I would lean to Toronto right now.

Just like you Shawn my allegiance lies with the North Siders. This is where the one game playoff is good and bad. The joy or agony will be short lived. I agree that the playoffs should be re-seeded after this game. I am nervous as everything aligns for the Cubs with Arrieta pitching and the momentum they have. Seems too good to be true.

I am a fan of what Arrieta did. I don't think this is crossing the line of trash talk. Rather it is confidence and having some fun. I think in this case it shows he has the right level of looseness for a big game.

I haven't figured out if Harvey is just an arrogant jerk or just dumb. He never does the right thing and comes across as an a-hole. I think the innings count coming up late was stupid and if the Mets knew about it they should have saved innings early in the year. I think Harvey lives for pitching in NY so that I get and it doesn't matter who throws against Greinke at Chavez Ravine in this series. That's an LA win guaranteed.

Shawn:

Alright Thad, now both the AL and NL Division Series are set! Jake Arrieta and IU grad Kyle Schwarber sent the Cubs into the Division Series with a win over the Pirates last night 4-0. A couple notes on that game and then we’ll have our predictions.

What a game last night! Schwarber gets things rolling in the first with an oppo single that scores Fowler. And what a night for Fowler. Having a legitimate leadoff guy has been huge for the Cubs this year. Honestly, I thought Arrieta was too jacked up last night. He looked up in the zone to me but the Pirates still went fishing all night. A huge double play in the 6th got him out of a major jam. The entire bean ball thing bothered me. OK, two pitches got away from Arrieta. One barely grazed a hand and the other was a wayward curveball. Do I blame Watson for hitting Arrieta? Not really. That’s the game. But for Sean Rodriguez to go crazy and hurt a poor innocent Gatorade jug was a bit much. After the game Hurdle was still complaining about the hit batters. Seriously? It’s a win or go home scenario. WHY would you put runners on base on purpose in a game like that? Just sour grapes in my opinion.

Tonight starts both ALDS match ups. While I love the Astros story I think the Royals still have something to prove. And even without Greg Holland on the back end their bullpen is still lights out. I also believe Cueto will step up and be huge for them. I like the Royals in 6.

Toronto and Texas is intriguing in many ways. The Blue Jays can just flat out mash. But like I’ve mentioned before those kind of lineups are prone to slumps. I think Marcus Stroman coming back for the Jays makes the difference. Plus, I think the Rangers got it done with smoke and mirrors. Kudos to them but I like the Jays in 5.

ALCS will have the Royals versus the Blue Jays. Again, I like the experience the Royals have from last year as well as having that chip on their shoulder all year when no one picked them to get back to the playoffs. They want to prove it’s not a fluke. And they’ve been the best team in the AL for most of the year. I think it will go 7 but I like the Royals.

The National League is where it gets interesting. Cubs vs Cardinals, my goodness. Can it get any more stressful for Cubs fans (like us)? It’s going to be fun. Cards have already named Lackey the starter for Game 1 and he’ll face former teammate Jon Lester. This is why the Cubs paid Lester the big money – to win games like these. Plus, I think it’s interesting that the Cardinals went with Lackey instead of Wacha. Have they lost confidence in Wacha? The key in my opinion is Yadier Molina. If he can play and the finger doesn’t bother him, I think the Cardinals win in 5. If not, I think the Cubs win in 4. And I believe his finger is bad so….

Mets vs Dodgers is another fascinating series. Young pitching vs a team trying to get over the hump. The Dodgers have the experience factor and two legit studs on the mound. But the Mets have “it” this year. I honestly have no idea who to pick in this series….so I’m going to go with the experience and give the nod to the Dodgers in 5.

That leaves Cubs vs Dodgers for the NL pennant. Wouldn’t the Silver Fox love that?! This has been a magical year for the Cubs. Quite honestly, it’s probably my favorite Cubs team of all time. I love what Joe Maddon has done, changing the culture in the clubhouse. The rookies have been fabulous and the team is playing with house money. But I think once Kershaw and the Dodgers get over the hump with the Mets, they are going to be tough to beat. I’ll take the Dodgers in 7 because of home field. 

That leaves a Dodgers vs Royals World Series. This year, I think the Royals get over the hump win Game 7 in Kauffman Stadium to erase the demons from last year. There’s my pick. What do you think?

Thad:

Arrieta is a horse and Schwarber hit a ball that still hasn't landed.  Fowler and Schwarber at the top were all the offense the Cubs needed with Jake on the hill.  Fowler does have some playoff experience and it showed last night as a calm veteran in a huge game.  Schwarber looked like a rookie that didn't know any better and was just having fun.  Arrieta is pitching with so much confidence he believes he can win every game he pitches.  He wasn't great last night, but when you are facing a guy like that the hitters put more pressure on themselves.  They miss pitches to hit or in general can't come up with that timely hit.  That was the case with the double plays last night.  The benches clearing was ridiculous.  I understand the Pirates being frustrated losing in a one game playoff, but there was no chance Arrieta hit those batters on purpose.  Even more it was stupid for the Pirates to retaliate.  Bush league move if you ask me.

The Astros are the Cinderella story of the AL.  They are the upstart, feel good story.  However, the Royals have been the team to beat since the season began and I still believe that.  I agree Cueto steps up and Ventura is in a groove.  He proved himself last season in the Playoffs.  They also know how to get the timely hit.  I will take KC in 5 games.

The Rangers are the surprise team just because of how much ground they made up to win the division.  They have some serious offense, but I'm concerned about their pitching past Hamels.  The Jays can slug and the Division Series a lot of times lends itself to more scoring.  I say the Jays slug their way to the ALCS in 4 games.

So are match-up in the ALCS is the same, but I am going a different way.  I believe when the Jays made those mid-season moves they became the best team in the AL.  Price is the Ace they need and Stroman is a stud ready to break onto the scene.  The Royals have the experience and I like their team.  But I will take the Jays and all of their offense to get it done in 6 games.

MLB has to be happy about the teams they have remaining in the NL.  They have the top 3 media markets and the most tradition rich team in the league.  This should be historically great for ratings.  The Cubs and Cards have been playing each other since 1892, but never in the postseason.  Until now.  As a Cub fan, I do not want to get too excited about this team just yet.  They have all of the pieces to do it.  However, the Cardinals are by far the toughest team in baseball to eliminate in a series.  Molina is a big key along with how much they get out of Wainwright.  The Cardinal offense is serviceable and the bullpen is great.  However, the Cubs have momentum and I think the short series helps them here.  Only takes 3 wins to advance so I will take the Cubs (I think I'm crazy right now).

It is time for Kershaw to deliver in October.  He is the best pitcher over the past 5 years, but has not shown it at all in the playoffs.  Luckily for him they are playing the Mets and not the Cardinals.  I think they find enough offense with Greinke and Kershaw winning the games they need to advance.  The Mets have a staff of young arms that should be good for a while.  Their offense was better since they picked up Cespedes, but I think they won't score enough to be LA.

NLCS is set with the Dodgers and Cubs.  Again, we have the same matchup and again I'm going the other way.  You talked about the Dodgers getting over the hump.  In a long series where they will most likely see Arrieta/Lester four times, I think the Dodgers won't score enough runs.  I know the Dodgers will throw Greinke and Kershaw which in theory should cancel out the top guys for CHC, but I'm going back to the Cubs momentum and youth.  They don't know yet that they are lucky to be there and that the pressure should be getting to them.  Maddon will press the right buttons as he did last night by starting Schwarber and they find a way to win in 6.  Sorry Silver Fox, but I see the Dodgers as one of those teams who never breaks through for a title in this run.

It will be all of Canada against the north side of Chicago in the fall classic. I believe the Cubs being in the WS is going to be a sight most thought they would never see.  That plays against them here.  People will be so relieved to be there that I think the feeling around the team will be weird.  Toronto will be the non-story in the match-up and will be able to go about their regular day-to-day business.  The Jays get it done in 6 and the Cubs wait for a title continues.
___________________________

There you have it! Thad takes the Jays over the Cubs in 6 and I take the Royals over the Dodgers in 7. Who knows if we'll be right, but I know we'll both be locked and loaded (and anxiously nervous) as our Cubs take on the dreaded Cardinals. 

Stick with us for NBA, NHL and College Basketball previews coming from the Tripets!!